Sri Lanka’s 2024 census reveals a looming economic crisis: more than half the working-age population is economically inactive, and the country’s elderly are on track to outnumber its children within years, according to an EconomyNext analysis of the final census data.
The Total Fertility Rate has fallen to 1.3 — far below the 2.1 replacement level — while the Ageing Index has reached 87 elderly per 100 children and is expected to cross the 100 threshold soon. The median age has risen to 35, up five years since 2012.
Labour force alarm
Only 47.3 percent of working-age Sri Lankans are economically active, leaving a 52.7 percent inactivity rate that Census officials describe as a major red flag. Over half of economically inactive women are confined to domestic and caregiving roles, highlighting a persistent gender barrier to workforce participation.
Unemployment averages 6 percent nationally but varies sharply by district — from 3.9 percent in Moneragala to 10.1 percent in Batticaloa.
Elderly vulnerability
The old-age dependency ratio stands at 29.4 and rising, while the child dependency ratio falls to 33.7, signalling a narrowing workforce pipeline. Some 370,229 single-person households are headed by people aged 60 and above, with 71.3 percent of them women. Among women over 65, 44.2 percent are widowed compared to 10.5 percent of men.
Census Director General Shyamalie Karunaratne said the data “forms the basic plan for development activities during the coming ten years.” Officials warned that social safety nets remain unprepared for the coming strain on elderly care.
The findings deepen the demographic picture outlined in the census final report released last week, which flagged the country’s 21.78 million population and below-replacement fertility as long-term structural challenges.
