Sri Lanka could face a prolonged drought lasting into September if El Niño conditions develop during the southwest monsoon season, the Department of Meteorology warned on Thursday, urging strict water conservation across all sectors.
Additional Director General Ajith Wijemanna told a media briefing that the hot, dry weather currently gripping the island is expected to persist throughout April. Significant relief would only arrive in the third week of May, once the southwest monsoon begins around May 20. But if El Niño conditions set in during the monsoon window, rainfall through June, July and August could fall short — extending the dry spell until September.
Wijemanna said both domestic users and the agriculture and irrigation sectors should begin rationing water immediately, warning that reservoir levels could fall faster than forecast if the monsoon underperforms.
The warning compounds an already difficult energy picture. Castlereigh and Maussakelle reservoirs are at low levels, squeezing hydropower output from the Wimalasurendra, Laxapana, New Laxapana, Canyon and Polpitiya plants. A weakened monsoon would push the National System Operator further toward costly thermal generation at precisely the moment the IMF is demanding a revised electricity tariff submission to reflect higher fuel input costs from the Middle East crisis.
The Met Department said it would continue to monitor sea surface temperature and pressure patterns across the Pacific, which are the primary signals for the onset of an El Niño phase, and update its forecasts through the pre-monsoon weeks.
