Sri Lanka’s next fertiliser shipment is priced at US$800 per metric tonne, up from $650 per tonne on the previous cargo, with the Yala season expected to see paddy yields drop 15-20 percent and maize production fall by more than 30 percent, the Sunday Times Business reported.
The 25,000 MT shipment is due before May 15. Colombo is separately negotiating with Chinese authorities for another 25,000 MT, although Beijing has restricted fertiliser exports amid the global shortage.
Peradeniya University Crop Science Senior Professor Buddhi Marambe said many farmers would be unable to absorb the higher input prices and would use less fertiliser, leading to significantly lower yields. He added that falling maize output would force more rice to be diverted into animal feed and beer production, compounding food-security concerns.
Rising fertiliser costs are a direct second-order impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. About 20 percent of global oil supply passes through the strait, and fertiliser production depends heavily on oil-based feedstocks. Planters have already warned that the Hormuz closure would cascade into agricultural costs, and the Asian Development Bank has flagged fertiliser prices as a food-inflation trigger.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake met fertiliser importers and officials from the Ministries of Agriculture and Plantation about two weeks ago and said the government would subsidise rates, particularly for paddy farmers. Unpaid fertiliser debts from 2018 and 2021 still amount to Rs. 4.8 billion.
The World Bank has forecast that global fertiliser price rises could increase the number of people facing acute food insecurity by 20 percent, on a base of about 300 million.
