Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel supply left, the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday, escalating an already acute aviation fuel crunch triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade.

“Several European countries may start to face shortages of jet fuel in the next six weeks, depending how much they are able to import from international markets to replace the lost supply from the Middle East, which accounted for 75 percent of Europe’s net imports of jet fuel previously,” the IEA told CNBC in a statement.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the continuing Hormuz closure would deliver “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced”, with higher petrol, gas and electricity prices hitting emerging economies hardest. “In April, there is nothing. The loss of oil in April will be twice the loss of oil in March,” Birol said. “On top of that you have LNG and others. It will come through to inflation, I think it will cut economic growth in many countries, especially emerging economies. In many countries the rationing of energy may be coming soon.”

The warning raises the pressure several notches higher than earlier estimates. Airports Council International Europe had cautioned of a three-week window; the IEA’s six-week figure reflects global supply modelling as Middle East product flows remain blocked.

Industry data show European aviation contributes 851 billion euros to GDP and supports 14 million jobs. Budget carrier EasyJet said bookings for later in the year are down 2 percent against 2025. Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti said the situation “pretty much depends on how many barrels will be flowing through the strait”, while ING energy analyst Rico Luman said “supplies from the Middle East have run out, and we need replacements.”

For Sri Lanka, prolonged European jet-fuel stress points to disruption for SriLankan Airlines codeshare partners, pricier onward connections for Sri Lankan travellers and potential pressure on inbound tourism from Europe during the April–May high-summer booking cycle.

Sources: Ada Derana.