The heads of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and International Energy Agency have issued a joint warning that the Middle East war is inflicting “substantial, global, and highly asymmetric” economic damage, with energy-importing developing nations bearing the heaviest burden.
The statement, released after a high-level coordination meeting formed in early April, said rising prices for oil, gas and fertilisers have deepened food security and employment concerns across low-income countries. Some oil and gas producers in the Middle East have simultaneously experienced sharp declines in export revenues due to infrastructure damage.
The institutions highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows — has yet to return to normal shipping operations. Even after flows resume, global commodity supplies will take “considerable time” to recover to pre-conflict levels, the statement warned.
Infrastructure damage is expected to keep fuel and fertiliser prices elevated for an extended period, with spillover effects across energy, food and industrial sectors. The war has also forcibly displaced populations, disrupted employment and significantly reduced tourism — effects that “may take considerable time to reverse.”
Sri Lanka, a net energy importer currently operating under fuel rationing restrictions with oil prices above $100 per barrel, is among the most exposed developing nations to this asymmetric shock. The country’s IMF programme faces additional pressure as the conflict drives commodity costs higher.
The three leaders discussed country-level impacts ahead of Tuesday’s release of two major reports — the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. They pledged close coordination and financial support where necessary.
