Sri Lanka is facing what forecasters say could be the most powerful El Niño event in three-quarters of a century, and the government has responded by bringing the Maha cultivation season forward by about two weeks.
The Department of Meteorology puts the probability of the developing El Niño becoming “very strong” by the end of 2026 at more than 90%, Ada Derana reported. Director General Ajith Wijemanna said there is also a roughly 70% probability that this year’s event will prove stronger than any El Niño recorded since 1950.
Pacific warming to peak in November
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology puts sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific currently around 2.2°C above average, rising to as much as 3.6°C at the expected November peak, according to NewsFirst. Meteorologists say an event of that strength has rarely been observed in the past century.
During an El Niño, warmer waters shift from the Indian Ocean towards the Pacific. As sea surface temperatures around Sri Lanka fall, rainfall drops sharply — which is why all parts of the country outside the southwest are in severe dry conditions despite this being the southwest monsoon season.
A mixed, not uniformly dry, outlook
Wijemanna cautioned against reading the forecast as unbroken drought. “We do not expect continuous drought, nor do we expect continuous rainfall,” he told NewsFirst, saying Sri Lanka generally gets a combination of both.
He expects little significant rainfall in early September, though cyclonic activity near the Philippines or over the Bay of Bengal could reactivate the southwest monsoon. Rain is likely late in September, with above-normal rainfall in October and November that could exceed seasonal averages and continue into December and early January. In those later months the Northern, Eastern and North Central provinces should see the heaviest falls as the northeast monsoon sets in.
Planting moved earlier to beat November floods
Agriculture, Livestock, Lands and Irrigation Minister K.D. Lal Kantha said the Maha season has been advanced by around two weeks, with water releases and fertiliser distribution starting earlier accordingly.
“Forecasts suggest there could be flood conditions around November,” he said. “If paddy crops have already reached a reasonable stage of growth by then, they will be better able to withstand such conditions.” The Department of Agriculture expects planting to begin across most major irrigation schemes in early October.
Reservoirs and drinking water
The two outlets differ slightly on storage: NewsFirst put current reservoir levels at 39%, above the 32% normally needed at the start of Maha, with Mahaweli reservoirs at 54%, while the Department of Irrigation told Ada Derana that its 74 major reservoirs hold about 37% of capacity.
Irrigation Director (Water Management) Engineer H.N.P.S.D. Herath said supplies should cover the Yala season provided the anticipated November and December rains arrive. National Water Supply and Drainage Board Chairman Engineer Chandana Bandara said there is no major problem with drinking water, with treatment plants running at maximum capacity and no supply reductions so far, though he noted some irrigation reservoirs have fallen by more than 56%.
Energy Minister Anura Karunathilaka separately warned that El Niño could affect electricity generation in late March and the first two weeks of April next year, according to Ada Derana. He said the first phase of a battery energy storage programme should add 160 megawatts to the national grid before December.
Residents in the dry zone described the current toll to NewsFirst. A Polonnaruwa resident said there had been no rain for nearly four months and all the tanks had dried up. A Puttalam coconut grower said his harvest had fallen from about 3,500 nuts to between 1,700 and 1,800, roughly halving production, and that he was digging channels to water dying trees.
Official figures show 70,828 people affected by the dry weather, with Monaragala worst hit. A Cabinet sub-committee was due to review the situation on August 17, and small tanks have already run dry across Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Monaragala.
