Brent crude passed US$96 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since 8 June, extending a rally driven by renewed exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz.
The September futures contract on the London ICE exchange rose 2.19% to US$96.13, Ada Derana reported, citing trading data carried by news agencies.
The move over four days
Hiru News dated the run-up precisely: Brent stood at US$88.10 last Saturday, and US West Texas Intermediate at US$83.40. By Wednesday WTI had pushed past US$91.
That places this week’s move on top of Monday’s, when Brent climbed to US$90.97 after US forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island. The cumulative gain since Saturday is about 9% on Brent and 9.5% on WTI.
Hiru attributed the rise to disruption of global fuel supply caused by the military situation around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
Goldman Sachs sees US$120
Bloomberg, citing Goldman Sachs analysts, reported that Brent could exceed US$120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if escalation continues, Ada Derana said — pointing to shipping disruption in the Strait and reduced supply from Persian Gulf producers.
Reuters separately warned that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf together are raising the risk of a global crisis in the gasoline and diesel markets, rather than crude alone.
Two different prices for the same benchmark
A second Hiru filing the same day gives a materially lower figure. Its market wrap says that “whilst ICE Brent is currently trading at US$92 per barrel, Middle Eastern benchmarks have moved past US$100 per barrel again” — a US$4 gap against Ada Derana’s US$96.13 for the same contract on the same day.
Neither outlet flagged the discrepancy, and the two reports appear to be snapshots taken at different hours of a fast-moving session. Ada Derana’s own report also carries an internal inconsistency, describing the move as a rise of 2.19% while also putting the price “1.96% above the previous close”. Both figures are reproduced here as published.
The same wrap reports that two very large crude carriers, the Sidr and the Senegal Prosperity, were hit by projectiles while leaving the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday — a detail no other outlet carried. Saudi Aramco had lifted August Gulf loadings by 700,000 barrels per day shortly beforehand.
The wider market backdrop
Global bond yields have reached their highest since 2008, according to the same report, as sustained fuel costs feed inflation expectations. It puts US inflation at 3.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.76%, 10-year UK gilts at 5.2% and 10-year Japanese government bonds above 3% for the first time in three decades. Markets are pricing roughly a 60% chance of a quarter-point US rate rise this month.
What it means for Sri Lanka
Crude at US$96 lands directly on an import bill already under strain. Central Bank data published this week show fuel imports cost US$453 million in July, 68% more than a year earlier, and about US$3.62 billion across the first seven months — the single largest driver of a current account that has now been in deficit for four consecutive months.
It also cuts against the direction of pump prices. The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation reduced octane 92 and 95 petrol prices on 30 August, when Brent was trading near US$88. Sri Lanka’s fuel pricing formula tracks international benchmarks, so a sustained move above US$90 would put upward pressure on the next monthly revision.
What has not been reported
No outlet has published the exact time of the US$96.13 print, reconciled it against the US$92 figure, or reported any comment from the CPC or the Ministry of Energy on the next price revision. None has said whether Sri Lanka has hedged or forward-purchased any of its remaining 2026 cargoes.
