Sri Lanka should treat five million visitors a year as the most the island can absorb, Deputy Tourism Minister Prof. Ruwan Ranasinghe has said, framing a number that has until now been an aspiration as an upper limit.
“For an island of this size and type, I think five million tourists would be the maximum,” Ranasinghe said, according to Daily Mirror. He cited the country’s small land area, sensitive ecosystems and fragile cultural heritage.
“We are no longer interested only in volumes. We are a small island nation with sensitive ecological settings, a small population, and fragile cultural practices and heritage. We need to be cautious about this.”
The recovery phase is over, he argues
Ranasinghe said the government regards the job of rebuilding arrivals as largely done, and is turning to what each visitor is worth.
“When we took over 22 months ago, the challenge concerned tourist volumes. By now, I think we have addressed that,” he said. “We have dealt with the issue of volume for now, and we have taken the necessary steps. All our officials, promoters and everyone involved, including those in aviation, have worked to bring in the volume. Now, however, we need to focus on value. That is the way forward.”
He warned that chasing headline arrival numbers without regard to carrying capacity risks producing a public backlash. “Our colleague from Spain will tell you how people openly resist overtourism in cities such as Barcelona. We do not need that in this country.”
The Deputy Minister was speaking at the launch of two consultancy projects — a National Tourism Strategy Plan and a Global Promotion Campaign Roadmap.
Sri Lanka has the raw material but has not converted it, he said, listing coastal waters, marine life, the hill country, rainforest and cultural heritage as assets the sector has failed to turn into its full economic potential after decades of operation, Hiru News reported.
He also said the next phase of growth must spread earnings across the population rather than concentrating them in a small number of companies, and urged that the two new roadmaps be implemented rather than added to the pile of past reports.
The number cuts both ways
Five million has been the government’s stated 2030 target, paired with a US$10 billion revenue goal. Ranasinghe is not abandoning it — he is redefining it as a ceiling rather than a destination, which changes what success looks like: revenue per visitor rather than visitors.
The reframing lands in a weak year. August arrivals came in at 191,704, down 3.3% on the same month in 2025, and the cumulative total for the year is running behind last year against a 2.5 million annual target. On present numbers the five million ceiling is not the binding constraint.
Not reported
Neither outlet said what carrying-capacity analysis, if any, produced the five million figure, who the consultants are, what the two projects cost, or when they report. Neither said whether the 2030 target or the US$10 billion revenue goal has formally changed. Ranasinghe did not name a target for revenue per visitor.
