The number of people affected by Sri Lanka’s dry spell has reached 115,534, from 35,149 families across seven districts, the National Disaster Relief Services Centre said on Saturday — and the Department of Meteorology has warned that the weather may turn to the opposite extreme before the end of next month.

Drinking water is currently being distributed to 34,608 people from 13,354 families, NewsFirst reported. Monaragala remains the worst-affected district by a wide margin, at 41,360 people from 12,732 families — roughly one in three of those affected nationally.

A large jump, but from a different counter

The figure is 18,950 higher than the 96,584 recorded on Friday, and the district count has gone back up from six to seven.

Two cautions apply to reading that as a single day’s deterioration. The running count published through August and early September was attributed to the Disaster Management Centre; Saturday’s figure comes from the National Disaster Relief Services Centre. NewsFirst does not say whether the two agencies count on the same basis, and no outlet has reconciled them. NewsFirst also does not name the seven districts, so it is not possible to say which district has been added — Hambantota is the one that came off the list at the start of the month.

What is clear is that Monaragala is now driving part of the increase. Its family count had been static at 11,751 on both September 1 and September 4; it has since risen to 12,732.

The water-distribution figure moves the other way. An earlier account of the DMC’s count had drinking water reaching 86,368 people; Saturday’s figure is 34,608. NewsFirst describes its number as what is “currently being distributed,” which may be an active snapshot rather than a cumulative total, but the report does not explain the difference and no other outlet has carried it.

Rain today, floods next month

Showers or thundershowers may occur at several places in the Uva, Central and Eastern provinces and in the Polonnaruwa and Mullaitivu districts after 2.00 p.m. today, with fairly heavy falls above 75 mm at some places, Ada Derana reported, citing the Department of Meteorology. Several spells of showers are expected in the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in Galle and Matara. The public has been asked to take precautions against localised strong winds and lightning.

That forecast covers the drought districts directly, and repeats Friday’s advisory almost word for word.

The longer outlook is new. Director of Meteorology Ajith Wijemanna said rain is expected in many parts of the island in the coming days, and that heavy rainfall and flooding may occur after the second week of October.

It is a sharper warning than the department gave a day earlier, when Wijemanna said the country should see normal rainfall from the latter part of September and forecast a hot, dry February to April 2027. The two are not necessarily in conflict — a wet second inter-monsoon can precede a dry early year — but neither Wijemanna nor any outlet has set them side by side.

The Sun is also overhead at Sri Lanka’s latitudes from August 28 to September 7, passing over Moratuwa, Kesbewa, Handapangoda, Idalgashinna, Yudhaganawa, Kotiyagala and Panama at about 12.08 p.m. today.

Against the relief effort

Compensation for ruined crops began paying out on Friday, at Rs. 100,000 per hectare capped at five acres from a Rs. 3 billion Cabinet allocation. Irrigation releases in Polonnaruwa were halted at the end of August, and the World Meteorological Organization said this week that El Niño is near certain to run to February 2027.

Not reported

No outlet named the seventh district, explained the change of counting agency, or said whether the crop-compensation caseload has grown alongside the affected count. None gave a rainfall threshold that would end the dry spell, said whether the forecast rain is enough to resume irrigation releases, or attached a probability or river-basin detail to the October flooding warning.

Sources