Sri Lanka’s tea production fell by nearly 9% year-on-year in September to 20.2 million kilograms, from 22.1 MnKg a year earlier, as excessive rainfall dragged High Grown output to its lowest level in 34 years, broker Asia Siyaka Commodities PLC has said, citing preliminary data from the Sri Lanka Tea Board.
High Grown production in September stood at 3.49 MnKg — the lowest since 1992, when output was a similar 3.5 MnKg, the Daily FT reported in its Saturday edition.
Asia Siyaka drew the contrast that makes the comparison striking: the 1992 slump was driven by a severe El Niño drought, while this year’s decline stems from the opposite extreme — heavy rain and unfavourable growing weather. Two crops 34 years apart, matched in volume, produced by opposite failures of the same climate.
The elevations, and the one number the report leaves out
| Elevation | Sept 2026 | Sept 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| High Grown | 3.49 MnKg | ~5.02 MnKg (derived) | ~−30% (derived) |
| Mid Grown | 3.09 MnKg | 4.1 MnKg | −25% |
| Low Grown | 13.6 MnKg | ~12.98 MnKg (derived) | +4.8% |
| National | 20.2 MnKg | 22.1 MnKg | −9% |
Mid Grown production also weakened, falling 25% to 3.09 MnKg — its lowest level since 2023. Low Grown fared relatively better, rising 4.8% year-on-year to 13.6 MnKg.
Asia Siyaka gives a percentage change for Mid Grown and for Low Grown. It gives none for High Grown — the elevation in the headline. That figure can be recovered from the broker’s own numbers, because the three elevations sum to the national total: 3.49 + 3.09 + 13.6 = 20.18 MnKg, against a stated national 20.2. The enumeration reconciles, so the components can be trusted.
Working backwards from the same identity for September 2025 — 22.1 MnKg less Mid Grown’s stated 4.1 MnKg, less a Low Grown figure of about 12.98 MnKg implied by the 4.8% rise — puts last September’s High Grown crop at roughly 5.0 MnKg. Against 3.49 MnKg this year, that is a fall of about 30%: comfortably the steepest of the three elevations, and the only one not quantified in the report. These two figures are this desk’s arithmetic from the broker’s published numbers, not Asia Siyaka’s, and are marked as derived above.
A trap in the cumulative figures: Low Grown both rose and fell
Cumulative production for January to September came to 192.6 MnKg, a 3% decline from the 199 MnKg recorded in the same period of 2025.
Asia Siyaka then states that all three elevations recorded lower cumulative output than in 2025 — combined High Grown and Mid Grown down by approximately 4 MnKg, and Low Grown down by around 2 MnKg year-on-year.
Read quickly against the monthly table, that looks like a contradiction: Low Grown is reported up 4.8% in September and down about 2 MnKg over the nine months. Both are correct, and they are not in conflict — they measure different periods. September was a good month for the low country; the year to date was not. The monthly direction and the cumulative direction diverge, and a reader taking either as the state of the crop would get it wrong.
The component figures roughly reconcile with the headline: about 4 MnKg plus about 2 MnKg against a stated cumulative shortfall of 6.4 MnKg, within the rounding the broker uses.
Against this desk’s own record, the decline has sharply accelerated
In late September this desk reported Central Bank data showing tea and coconut output down year-on-year across January to July. The notable feature of that data was that July’s fall in tea production was only marginal against steeper drops earlier in the year — a decline that appeared to be moderating.
September reverses that reading. An elevation hitting a 34-year low two months later is not a moderating trend, and the cumulative fall has widened from the pattern that earlier release described.
The scale of the gap against policy is also worth stating. The Tea Board’s stated ambition, recorded when it opened 70 nurseries for a replanting drive in September, is a 400 million kg annual crop. At 192.6 MnKg over nine months, 2026 is running at an annualised pace of roughly 257 MnKg — about 64% of that target. The replanting programme is a long-horizon intervention and was never going to show up in this year’s crop; the distance is context for what the target requires, not a measure of the programme’s failure.
Why High Grown matters more than its volume
High Grown tea is 3.49 MnKg out of 20.2 — about 17% of September’s crop by weight. Its significance is not volume but value: the high-elevation teas are the premium end of the Ceylon Tea offering, and the grades that carry the origin’s reputation and its highest auction prices.
A 30% fall in the premium segment alongside a 4.8% rise in the bulk Low Grown segment is a shift in the composition of the crop, not simply a smaller crop. Neither the broker’s report nor the Daily FT’s account addresses what that mix change does to average auction prices or export earnings.
A caution on the headline: ft.lk ran it last month too
One month earlier the same outlet published “High Grown tea crop sinks to 34-year low in Aug.” — a near-identical headline about a different month, carrying the same 34-year framing.
This desk has not fetched or verified that August article, and flags the point rather than resolving it. Either the 34-year record was broken in two consecutive months, or the framing recurs across filings in a way that would make “34-year low” a description of the season rather than of September specifically. Readers should treat the September figure of 3.49 MnKg — which is sourced and specific — as the fact, and the “34-year” label as a characterisation whose month-to-month application this desk cannot confirm.
Neither this desk’s archive nor Saturday’s filing contains the August High Grown volume, which is the one number that would settle it.
Not reported
The report gives no prices. There is no auction average, no indication of what the collapse in premium volumes has done to the Colombo auction, and no export-earnings figure — so the revenue consequence of a 30% fall in the highest-value elevation is unstated.
It gives no regional detail below elevation level: which planting districts drove the High Grown fall, and whether the damage is rainfall-related crop loss, harvesting disruption, or both. It does not say how much rain fell, or over what period, and does not connect the figures to any specific weather event.
It offers no forecast. There is no October indication, no full-year estimate, and no statement of whether the broker expects the trend to continue. Nor does it carry comment from the Tea Board, the Planters’ Association, plantation companies or the Plantation Industries Ministry — the data is a broker’s reading of preliminary official figures, with no response from the industry or the regulator.
Finally, the figures are described as preliminary Sri Lanka Tea Board data. No filing says when final figures are due or how far preliminary estimates have been revised in past months.
A note on sourcing
This article rests on one verified newsroom. A domain-restricted search across EconomyNext, the Daily Mirror, the Island, Ada Derana, Lanka Business Online, the Sunday Times, Daily News, news.lk and the Colombo Gazette returned no independent report of the September Asia Siyaka figures at the time of writing.
That is consistent with the pattern this desk has recorded for broker and survey releases, where corroboration typically arrives two to six days after the first filing. The Daily FT’s edition is dated Saturday, 17 October 2026, with the article file stamped 16 October at 11.12 p.m. — published overnight, which is the most likely reason no other newsroom has it yet. It is a candidate for a source addition next week rather than a story that other outlets have declined.
Sources: Daily FT.
