The low-level atmospheric disturbance near Sri Lanka has developed into a low-pressure area, the Department of Meteorology said on Thursday morning, confirming the intensification it had given a 24-hour window for a day earlier.
Under the system’s influence, rainfall will increase over the island and over the deep and shallow sea areas around it today, the department said in a forecast issued at 5.30 a.m. on 22 October and reproduced in full by The Island.
Heavy showers above 100mm are likely at some places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and North Western provinces.
Showers or thundershowers will occur at times in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Northern, North Western and Southern provinces and in the Anuradhapura district, with cloudy skies over those areas. Elsewhere on the island, rain is expected after 1.00 p.m. Misty conditions can be expected at some places in the Central and Uva provinces during the early hours of the morning.
The department asked the public, and the naval and fishing communities in particular, to stay attentive to the forecasts and bulletins it issues on the system, and repeated its standing warning about the temporary strong winds and lightning that accompany thundershowers.
What changed overnight
This is the third consecutive daily advisory on the same system, and the sequence shows a forecast that was made and then met.
On 20 October the department reported only “the development of an atmospheric disturbance in the lower atmosphere,” and put the 100mm risk on the Northern, North Central, Central, Eastern, North Western and Uva provinces — an eastern and northern map.
On 21 October it said the disturbance might deepen into a low-pressure area within 24 hours and moved the heavy-rain map west and south.
On 22 October the deepening has happened, and the heavy-rain list has tightened again — from six provinces on Wednesday to four today. The Northern province and the Anuradhapura district have dropped off the 100mm list, while the Southern province has stayed on it. The south-west quarter of the island is now the clear focus, and it has been the focus for two days running.
The Sinhala and English releases name different districts
The department’s filings this morning do not agree on one point, and the difference is worth stating rather than smoothing over.
The English release puts the Anuradhapura district alongside the six provinces listed for showers or thundershowers. Both Sinhala-language filings — Hiru News, timestamped 7.21 a.m., and ITN News at 5.47 a.m. — name the Mannar district instead. Anuradhapura and Mannar are not neighbours of one another in the forecast sense: one is North Central, the other Northern.
ITN’s account differs from the other two in three further ways. It omits the Northern province from the shower list; it omits the Southern province from the 100mm list; and it extends the system’s window to “today (22) and tomorrow (23)”, where both the English release and Hiru confine it to today. ITN also carries neither the 1.00 p.m. clause nor the early-morning mist line.
Hiru’s account otherwise matches the English release point for point, including the 100mm provinces, the 1.00 p.m. clause and the mist line. On the balance of the three filings, the English release is the safer guide, and readers in Mannar and in Anuradhapura should both treat themselves as covered.
Why it matters now
The rain is falling on ground that is already loaded. The National Building Research Organisation issued landslide warnings for five districts on Tuesday, and reservoir managers opened spill gates at Upper Kotmale and Deduru Oya on Wednesday. Heavy rain on saturated catchments is the condition both of those measures anticipate.
Not reported
None of the three filings says where the low-pressure area is centred, how strong it is, or what the department expects it to do next — whether it will deepen further, stall or move away. None gives expected wind speeds at sea, and none says whether a separate advisory has been issued for fishing vessels beyond the general request to stay attentive. The department’s own site, meteo.gov.lk, remains unreachable from this desk, so the original release could only be read through The Island’s verbatim reproduction.
Sources: Heavy showers above 100 mm are likely at some places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern and North-western provinces — The Island, October 22, A low pressure area develops near Sri Lanka — Hiru News, October 22 (Sinhala), Rain for several provinces due to the low-pressure area — ITN News, October 22 (Sinhala).