Cyclone Arnab has reached very severe cyclonic storm strength over the west-central Bay of Bengal, several hours earlier than India’s own forecast projected, and is due to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday forenoon with sustained winds of 115–125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph.
The India Meteorological Department, which names storms in this basin, classified the system as a very severe cyclonic storm in National Bulletin No. 15, issued on Tuesday. At 2.30 a.m. Indian time the storm was centred near 15.9°N, 85.4°E — about 300 km south-east of Visakhapatnam and 530 km east of Bapatla — moving west-north-west at 25 kmph.
It is forecast to hold that track until Tuesday evening, then turn north-west and cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, by the forenoon of 28 October. The system is under continuous watch by the Doppler weather radar at Visakhapatnam.
It is running ahead of the forecast issued 21 hours earlier
The escalation has outpaced IMD’s own projection. Bulletin No. 8, issued on Monday morning, put the storm at severe cyclonic storm strength at 5.30 a.m. on Tuesday, with winds of 110–120 kmph, and did not expect the very severe stage until Tuesday evening.
| 5.30 a.m. Tuesday | Forecast (Mon, Bulletin 8) | Actual (Tue, Bulletin 15) |
|---|---|---|
| Category | Severe Cyclonic Storm | Very Severe Cyclonic Storm |
| Sustained wind | 110–120 kmph | 130–140 kmph |
| Gusts | 130 kmph | 155 kmph |
Arnab is therefore both a category ahead of schedule and about 20 kmph stronger than projected a day earlier. Bulletin 15 now puts its peak at 135–145 kmph gusting to 160 kmph through Tuesday — above the 115–125 kmph peak Monday’s bulletin had forecast.
After landfall the decay is expected to be rapid: back to a cyclonic storm by late Wednesday, a deep depression on Thursday, and a well-marked low by Friday.
Three Sri Lankan outlets had the timetable; one did not
The Department of Meteorology’s accounts, as reported in Colombo on Monday, match what has happened. The Daily Mirror reported that the storm would reach severe strength by Monday evening and very severe on 27 October, with landfall around 11.30 a.m. on 28 October — all three now borne out. NewsFirst reported at midday on Monday that Arnab could become a severe cyclonic storm by about 11.30 p.m. that night, which is consistent with IMD’s “by midnight of the 26th”.
Hiru News carried a different timetable, placing the severe stage on Tuesday and the very severe stage on Wednesday the 28th — a day late at both steps. This desk recorded that one-day gap as an open discrepancy on Monday night, having been unable to read IMD’s forecast table at the time. The bulletins settle it against Hiru. The storm was already very severe by 2.30 a.m. on Tuesday.
What it means for Sri Lanka
The storm is moving away from the island, and no filing forecasts a direct hit. The Daily Mirror’s account says showery weather will continue over the south-western parts of the island for several days on the storm’s wind patterns, with showers or thundershowers in the Northern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North-Western, Central and North-Central provinces and the Trincomalee district, and falls exceeding 75 mm at some locations.
The marine risk is the sharper one. NewsFirst reported winds of 80–100 kmph and wave heights of three to four metres in the affected sea areas, with fishermen told to move vessels to safety immediately. A red warning for strong winds and very rough seas, issued at 8 p.m. on Monday for 12 hours, is covered with the full no-go coordinates in this desk’s running report on the weather spell, which also carries the Sri Lankan casualty and displacement figures.
IMD’s heaviest warnings fall on India: extremely heavy rainfall of 21 cm or more at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday, with south Odisha under the same category on Wednesday.
Not reported
IMD’s bulletin is a cyclone warning for Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining south Odisha coasts and carries no forecast for Sri Lanka; the Sri Lankan filings above predate Tuesday’s intensification and none has yet been updated to reflect that the storm reached very severe strength early. No filing says whether the earlier escalation changes the rainfall outlook for the island, and none reports whether any Sri Lankan fishing fleet is inside the warned sea area.
The India Meteorological Department is cited here as the originating authority for the storm’s classification and track. It is not one of this site’s verified newsrooms, and the credibility rating above reflects only the three Sri Lankan outlets.
