The depression in the Bay of Bengal that this desk has tracked since Thursday is forecast to strengthen through two further stages today and reach severe cyclonic storm intensity by 2 November, the Department of Meteorology says — while fairly heavy falls above 50 millimetres are expected over five provinces and two districts of Sri Lanka this afternoon.

The two forecasts were issued by the same department on Sunday morning and are carried here together because they describe one weather system.

The island forecast

Showers or thundershowers are likely at times after 1:00 p.m. today across the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva and Southern provinces and in the Ampara and Batticaloa districts, Hiru News reported at 6:23 a.m. Colombo time.

Within that area, the department says there is a possibility of fairly heavy falls exceeding 50 millimetres at some places. Mainly dry weather is expected over the rest of the island.

Misty conditions may also develop during the early morning in parts of the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central and Uva provinces and in the Kurunegala and Anuradhapura districts.

NewsFirst reported the same provinces and districts at 7:47 a.m., and the same 1:00 p.m. onset. Its account does not carry the 50mm figure, which appears in the Hiru filing alone.

A three-stage forecast at sea

The department’s marine bulletin sets out a sequence for the system itself. The depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal and the adjoining southeast Bay at around 11:30 a.m. today.

Continuing on the same track, it is then very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the southwest Bay and adjoining west-central Bay at around 11:30 p.m. the same day, and to strengthen further into a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay by 2 November 2026.

Wind speeds in the affected sea areas may occasionally increase to 70–80 km/h, with heavy showers or thundershowers and very rough seas.

How the system developed

This is the fourth stage of a system this desk has followed since late last week. The department first flagged a possible disturbance near the southern Andaman Sea on 29 October, a day after Cyclone Arnab crossed the Indian coast from the same basin. By 30 October the disturbance had become a depression, and the department told fishermen to stay out of waters between 10°N–15°N and 80°E–90°E until further notice.

Today’s forecast track takes the system away from Sri Lanka and towards the Indian coast, which is consistent with the west-northwestward movement described. Neither filing forecasts a landfall point or a landfall date.

What changed from yesterday

Saturday’s advisory covered the same five provinces plus three districts — Kurunegala, Ampara and Batticaloa — also after 1:00 p.m. Today Kurunegala moves out of the rainfall area and into the morning mist area, leaving two districts.

The more substantial change is the 50mm figure. Yesterday’s advisory gave no rainfall amounts and no threshold, a gap recorded in this site’s coverage at the time. Today’s carries one.

Update — the fishing advisory has been reissued, with an instruction to clear the zone

The gap recorded below — that no fresh fishing advisory accompanied Sunday’s morning bulletin — was closed later in the morning.

The Met Department has warned that the depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal will strengthen to cyclonic storm conditions within the coming hours, and has told fishermen and mariners to stay out of Bay of Bengal sea areas until further notice, Hiru News reported at 8:39 a.m. Colombo time.

The Department of Fisheries has separately told fishing and seafaring communities in the affected areas to sail for safe waters. Its instruction is specific: vessels currently in the zone between latitudes 10°N and 15°N and longitudes 80°E and 90°E should leave immediately and sail either north or south — that is, out of the system’s west-northwestward path rather than ahead of it.

This is the second time the same sea box has been closed to Sri Lankan boats during this system’s development. The department issued the identical 10°N–15°N, 80°E–90°E advisory on 30 October, when the disturbance had just become a depression. Sunday’s reissue adds the direction of escape, which the earlier one did not carry.

Hiru’s wording — a cyclonic storm “within the coming hours” — is looser than the staged timings in the marine bulletin above, which put cyclonic storm strength at around 11:30 p.m. Both are attributed to the same department on the same morning. The staged sequence is the more precise of the two and is the one readers should work from.

Not reported

Neither filing gives a district-level breakdown within the named provinces, and neither states the expected duration of the rainfall. Neither references the National Building Research Organisation’s landslide alerts, and no updated landslide warning had been issued at the time of writing. The forecasts do not say whether the system will affect Sri Lanka directly once it reaches severe cyclonic storm strength.

The fishing advisory does not say how many Sri Lankan vessels are believed to be in the restricted zone, how they are being contacted, or what assistance is available to boats that cannot clear it in time. No landfall point or date for the storm has been forecast in any of the filings.

Source note: Sunday’s fishing advisory was carried by Hiru News, already cited above, so this article’s credibility rating is unchanged — the index counts distinct newsrooms, not filings.

Sources