China’s graduation season has become a source of mounting anxiety for millions of young people, as record numbers of university leavers enter a labour market that is not expanding fast enough to absorb them.
Official figures released in October showed unemployment among people aged 16 to 24, excluding students, at 18 percent in September. The rate had climbed from 14.9 percent in June to 17.9 percent in July and 18.9 percent in August before easing. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the September reading was the highest recorded for that month since the bureau began publishing its revised age-group series in January 2024.
Other age bands remain far less affected. Unemployment among those aged 25 to 29 stood at 7.4 percent in September, while the rate for people aged 30 to 59 held at 3.9 percent. Overall urban unemployment was 5.2 percent.
The month-on-month decline is partly seasonal: large numbers of students enter the workforce over the summer, temporarily inflating the figure before some find work. A two-month fall does not establish that the underlying problem has eased, and the September rate remained above the equivalent readings for September 2024 and September 2025, according to Caixin Global.
The official measure also has acknowledged limits. China excluded enrolled students from its headline youth unemployment calculation in 2023, arguing the revised approach better captures those who have finished studying and are seeking work. That change followed intense public scrutiny after the previous series recorded a rate of 21.3 percent in June 2023. The revised measure does not capture every form of economic insecurity: people not actively looking for work generally fall outside the labour force, while those in limited paid work may be counted as employed even when hours or earnings fall well short of their needs.
The scale of the intake compounds the pressure. China expects approximately 12.7 million university graduates in 2026, around 480,000 more than the previous year. Weak domestic demand, business uncertainty, competition for entry-level roles and the growing use of artificial intelligence are all adding to the difficulty of converting a degree into stable employment.
