Sri Lanka’s economic growth in 2026 is likely to be lower than the rate recorded in 2025 as external shocks weigh on tourism, agriculture and exports, Professor Priyanga Dunusinghe of the University of Colombo’s Department of Economics said on Wednesday.
Speaking on the Ada Derana ‘Big Focus’ programme on April 22, Dunusinghe pointed to around a 30% decline in tourist arrivals so far this year and said the agricultural sector had been adversely affected by unfavourable weather and climatic conditions.
He warned of a broader slowdown in economic activity, citing rising production costs in the industrial sector and headwinds facing exporters. The global context, he added, had also turned less favourable, with the International Monetary Fund having revised down its global growth forecasts. The fund’s Spring Meetings scenarios show sharper cuts for commodity-importing economies exposed to the Middle East conflict.
Supply chain disruptions involving fuel, fertilizer and electronic components could continue to exert negative pressure on Sri Lanka’s goods and services exports, he said.
Dunusinghe’s caution echoes the Asian Development Bank’s 3.9% growth projection for 2026 and the IMF’s own revised forecast for Sri Lanka, both of which trimmed their earlier outlooks to reflect geopolitical and trade-policy shocks.
Sri Lanka’s Department of Census and Statistics put real GDP growth at 4.7% in 2025. Recent data on tourism, industrial output and external trade have triggered a downward revision of early-year expectations for 2026.
