The International Monetary Fund has warned that there will be “no neat and clean return to the way things were” in global trade, with the drag from shipping and air disruptions set to outlast the fighting in the Middle East — a framing that names tourism-dependent and import-reliant economies as the hardest hit.
In analysis flagged by EconomyNext on Friday, the IMF said the future of Strait of Hormuz transits and regional air traffic remained unknown. “However, it’s already clear that growth will be slower, even if an enduring peace is reached,” the Fund said. The April 2026 World Economic Outlook concluded that shipping and air disruptions slow trade, raise costs along supply chains and “hit tourism-dependent and import-reliant economies hardest.” Consumers feel the impact through higher prices on food and essentials, with lower-income households bearing the largest share of the burden.
The IMF compared the Hormuz disruption to the slow recovery of the Bab el-Mandeb route after Houthi attacks. If transits and regional flights normalised at a similar pace, the drag on growth would persist long after the fighting stopped. The Fund said policies that strengthened the resilience of transport networks were now “central to sustaining growth and protecting livelihoods.”
For Sri Lanka the framing is direct. The economy fits both categories the IMF singled out — heavily dependent on tourism receipts and reliant on imports for fuel, food and intermediate goods. The Fund has already revised its growth forecast downward, the Asian Development Bank issued a special update cutting projected growth to 4.7%, and a PUCSL public consultation on revised tariffs closes May 6 with the regulator’s final decision due May 9.
The April WEO scenario analysis previously modelled a global growth path of around 3.1% under the reference case, with adverse and severe scenarios pulling closer to recession territory.
