The National Aquatic Resources Research and Development Agency has begun analysing data on how a future El Niño could affect the ocean and Sri Lanka’s fish stocks, its chairman Dr. Sanath Hettiarachchi has said.
The work is being carried out with several institutions, including the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, NewsFirst reported. Research teams are gathering observations and examining the potential effects on fish production, marine biodiversity and the socio-economic conditions of coastal communities, particularly fishing communities.
Hettiarachchi said the findings will help authorities produce forecasts of El Niño’s likely impacts.
He also said the current rise in fish prices is not caused by El Niño.
A shift from eight days ago
The announcement marks a change in posture. NARA said on August 22 that Sri Lanka’s fish harvest has been declining steadily since 2014, and Hettiarachchi said then that it had not been established whether El Niño was contributing, adding that there was no confirmation Sri Lanka had been directly affected by the phenomenon.
That answer followed a request the Fisheries Ministry had made on August 9 for a scientific report on fish populations and the potential impact of El Niño, after fishermen reported falling catches. Sunday’s statement is the first indication that a structured analysis is actually under way, and that it involves more than one agency.
The framing has also moved. NARA is now describing the subject as “a future El Niño condition” rather than a current one — consistent with its earlier position that no direct effect on Sri Lankan waters has been confirmed, and with forecasting rather than diagnosis as the goal.
What is still missing
NARA has not said which institutions besides the Fisheries Ministry are involved, when the analysis will report, or what data it is drawing on. It has given no tonnage figures for the decline since 2014, and it has still not named a cause.
Hettiarachchi’s remark on fish prices is the clearest statement yet separating the two issues, but he did not say what he believes is driving prices up instead.
Sri Lanka’s exposure to the phenomenon is being assessed across several sectors. The Met Department in July put the chance of a very strong El Niño between October and December at 81 percent, and sea temperatures around the island have since risen about 1°C as Pacific warming approaches 2016 levels. Health authorities have separately warned of malnutrition risks to pregnant women and young children.
No other verified newsroom had carried NARA’s announcement at the time of writing.
