The probability of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December has risen to 81 percent, Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology has warned.
Director General Ajith Wijemanne said the updated figure reflects the latest assessments from international forecasting agencies. He noted that El Niño conditions have already begun to influence the country’s weather.
As a result, rainfall from the ongoing South-West monsoon has decreased, while the “heat index” — a measure of how hot conditions feel once humidity is factored in — has risen, Wijemanne said.
El Niño, a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically disrupts rainfall patterns across South Asia. For Sri Lanka it often brings drier-than-usual conditions and elevated temperatures in the short term, raising concerns for agriculture, drinking water supplies and hydropower generation.
The latest warning builds on months of mounting signals. In June, NOAA confirmed that El Niño had officially begun, and forecasters had earlier flagged an 82% probability of drought conditions through July and August.
The Meteorology Department has urged the public and relevant authorities to prepare for continued volatility, as the strengthening El Niño is expected to shape weather conditions into the final quarter of the year.
