The International Energy Agency has again revised down its outlook for Russian oil production, citing continuing Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure including refineries, Hiru News reported on Friday, carrying Reuters copy.
In its monthly review, the Paris-based agency cut its forecast for Russian crude by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd in 2026, and by 235,000 bpd for 2027, when output is now expected to average 8.6 million bpd.
The decline so far
Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, and its output has been falling as Ukrainian strikes hit energy infrastructure. According to the IEA:
- August production fell 200,000 bpd from July, to 8.36 million bpd
- That is 940,000 bpd below the January 2026 peak of 9.3 million bpd
- It is 695,000 bpd below the level a year earlier
Russia stopped publishing its own oil output data in April 2023, so external estimates carry the weight. OPEC put the August decline at 160,000 bpd from July, to 8.718 million bpd — a materially higher absolute level than the IEA’s 8.36 million, though both describe a month-on-month fall. Neither body reconciles the gap.
Separately, a Russian government draft forecast seen by Reuters last week downgraded this year’s output outlook to a 17-year low and revised the fuel export outlook for 2026 and 2027.
Why it matters here
The revision lands in an already strained global oil market. Brent has been trading at elevated levels through the Iran conflict, with Sri Lankan coverage this week tracking crude near US$108 alongside moving bond yields. Shipping through the region has also been disrupted, with Houthi forces capturing Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandab strait.
For Sri Lanka, which imports effectively all of its crude and refined fuel, a tighter global supply picture feeds directly into the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation’s import bill. The Government said this week there would be no electricity tariff increase next quarter, a position taken against this backdrop.
Still not reported
The report does not give the IEA’s global supply and demand balance for 2026 or 2027, say how much of the Russian shortfall other producers are expected to absorb, or quantify how much refining capacity Ukrainian strikes have taken offline. It does not state the IEA’s price assumptions, and offers no explanation for the difference between the IEA and OPEC production estimates for the same month.
