The Department of Meteorology has placed every province of Sri Lanka under a severe lightning warning until 1 a.m. on Thursday, and forecast heavy showers above 100 mm in five provinces and the Anuradhapura district.
The day came in two stages, and the second was an escalation of the first.
Stage one: the 5.30 a.m. forecast
The department’s forecast for 14 October, issued at 5.30 a.m. and reproduced in full by the Island, attributes continued cloud and rainfall to a low-level atmospheric disturbance persisting in the Bay of Bengal near Sri Lanka — the same wording used a day earlier.
- Heavy showers above 100 mm — some places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Central and North-western provinces, and in the Anuradhapura district.
- Fairly heavy showers above 75 mm — some places in other areas of the island.
- Showers or thundershowers at times in the Northern, Eastern, Southern and Western provinces; elsewhere after 1.00 p.m.
- Misty conditions at some places in Sabaragamuwa, Central and Uva during the early morning.
Stage two: the 12.16 p.m. lightning warning
By midday the department had issued a separate warning. A severe lightning warning covering all provinces is in force, valid until 1.00 a.m. on Thursday (15 October), with thundershowers expected in most parts of the island, the Daily Mirror reported at 12.16 p.m. Temporary, localised strong winds may also occur.
Three things changed from Tuesday, and no filing says so
Read against Tuesday’s advisory, the shift is specific:
The lightning warning went island-wide. On 13 October severe lightning was forecast for six provinces — Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva, North Western and Southern. It now covers all nine. The three provinces added are the Northern, Eastern and North Central.
The upper bound disappeared. Tuesday’s heavy-rain figure was a band: 100–150 mm. Wednesday’s is “above 100 mm”, with no ceiling stated.
Uva dropped out of the heavy-rain list and North-western came in. Tuesday’s five heavy-rain provinces were Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, Uva and Southern. Wednesday’s are Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, Central and North-western. Uva now appears only in the misty-conditions line and under the island-wide lightning warning.
There is also a floor that did not exist on Tuesday: above 75 mm anywhere else on the island. Taken with the 100 mm areas, that places the entire country under a forecast of at least fairly heavy showers — a broader statement than any advisory in this sequence has carried so far.
One detail of the area naming is worth recording. Anuradhapura is named at district level, not as part of its province. On 12 October the warning area covered North Central Province as a whole; Wednesday’s heavy-rain list narrows that back to the single district, while the lightning warning covers the province entirely.
The system is now in its third forecast day
On 11 October the department issued an amber advisory and said a low-pressure area was likely to form over the Southeast Bay of Bengal around 13 October. On 12 October roads went under water in Colombo and landslide early warnings covered seven districts, with the department saying rainfall would increase over the following three days. Wednesday is the last of those three days.
Not reported
Neither filing gives an advisory colour grade, and neither says what the department expects after the warning expires at 1 a.m. on Thursday — the point at which this sequence either breaks or extends into a fourth day.
Neither says whether the National Building Research Organisation’s landslide early warnings have been extended, narrowed or lifted since 12 October, whether any district-level flood warning is in force, or what rainfall has actually been recorded so far in the areas named. The Daily Mirror does not state when its lightning warning was issued, only that it is valid until 1 a.m.; the 12.16 p.m. filing time is the earliest point at which it is known to have been public.
No filing reports a casualty, displacement or damage figure for the current spell.
