IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Wednesday that the Middle East war has reversed what would have been an upward revision to global growth forecasts, speaking at Day 2 of the Spring Meetings in Washington.
Georgieva said the global economy had been “building strong momentum” with forecasts on track for an upgrade before the conflict shock reversed that trajectory. The IMF is now presenting multiple scenarios rather than a single forecast “because of the significant uncertainty,” she said.
If the conflict ends within weeks, a rapid recovery remains possible — growth would slow and inflation would rise, but effects would be contained. A prolonged conflict with greater infrastructure destruction would produce significantly worse outcomes, she warned.
The remarks go beyond the published WEO scenario analysis, which modelled reference, adverse and severe scenarios. Georgieva’s framing — that a positive outlook was actively lost, not just dampened — underscores the economic cost of the conflict.
For Sri Lanka, which is concluding its 5th and 6th IMF review at the same meetings, the message reinforces the urgency of fiscal discipline as global growth headwinds mount. The IMF has separately warned that 45 million more people face hunger due to supply chain disruptions from the war.
