The world has lost more than US$50 billion worth of crude oil production since the Iran war began nearly 50 days ago, with the aftershocks of the crisis set to be felt for months or years, according to Reuters calculations and analysts cited by Ada Derana on Saturday.
Since the crisis began in late February, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, Kpler data shows — the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
Gulf Arab countries lost roughly 8 million barrels per day of crude production in March, nearly equivalent to the combined output of Exxon Mobil and Chevron, two of the world’s biggest oil companies.
Jet fuel exports from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman fell from about 19.6 million barrels in February to just 4.1 million barrels over March and April combined, Kpler data shows. The loss would have been enough to fuel around 20,000 round-trip flights between New York’s JFK and London Heathrow, by Reuters estimates.
With crude prices averaging around $100 a barrel since the conflict began, the missing volumes represent about $50 billion in lost revenues, said Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler. That is equivalent to a 1% cut in Germany’s annual gross domestic product, or roughly the entire GDP of Latvia or Estonia.
Global onshore crude inventories have fallen by about 45 million barrels in April, and production outages since late March have reached roughly 12 million barrels per day. Heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take four to five months to return to normal operating levels, Rauball said, extending stock draws through the summer. Damage to refining capacity and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex means full restoration of regional energy infrastructure could take years.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire accord, while U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal to end the war would come “soon,” though timing remains unclear.
