The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has flagged a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July 2026, after rapidly rising sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific produced what the agency described as a clear shift away from neutral conditions.
The forecast appears in WMO’s latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, which now projects “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” over the next three months alongside notable regional variations in rainfall.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO. He added that models suggest the event “may be a strong” one, while cautioning that the so-called “spring predictability barrier” still limits forecast certainty until after April.
El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterised by warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months, and historically has reshaped rainfall patterns, drought risk and extreme weather across continents. WMO noted that 2024 became the hottest year on record largely due to the combined impact of the previous 2023–2024 El Niño and human-induced warming.
For Sri Lanka, an El Niño onset by mid-year would coincide with the Yala season and arrives as hydropower reservoirs are already running at depleted levels and the Department of Meteorology has separately warned of drought conditions from September. The WMO forecast is the first international confirmation of an earlier-than-expected timeline that could compress the window for monsoon recovery, with implications for paddy cultivation, drinking-water supply and the country’s reliance on coal and oil-fired power as hydroelectric output falls.
WMO said there is no evidence climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, but warned that warmer oceans amplify their impacts by adding energy and moisture for heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
