Sri Lanka is expected to face developing El Niño conditions during the upcoming southwest monsoon season, the Department of Meteorology said on Monday.
Director General Athula Karunanayake said the southwest monsoon period, which runs from May to September, is likely to be influenced by gradually strengthening El Niño conditions from May onwards. As a result, a reduction in southwest monsoon rainfall is expected, along with changes in prevailing wind patterns after May 15 in line with the monsoon season.
Karunanayake said less rainfall is likely in the southwestern region, with a possibility of reduced lightning activity. Gradual rainfall could also help ease rising temperatures over time.
The department forecast afternoon showers or thundershowers in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central, North Western and Eastern provinces, as well as in the Polonnaruwa, Galle and Matara districts. Heavy rainfall exceeding 50 mm is likely in some areas of the Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces and in the Galle and Matara districts. Fairly strong winds of 30–40 km/h are expected in parts of the Northern and North Central provinces and the Hambantota district.
The advisory firms up earlier signals from the World Meteorological Organization of an emerging Pacific El Niño through the May–July window. A weaker southwest monsoon would compound stress on hydropower output, with Castlereigh and Maussakelle reservoirs feeding the Wimalasurendra-Laxapana cluster having declined sharply through April. The Karunanayake September drought warning earlier flagged a similar trajectory for the latter half of the season.
Source: Ada Derana.
