Iran expects to restore most of its damaged refining and distribution facilities to 70–80 percent of pre-attack capacity within one to two months, a senior oil ministry official said on Saturday, as authorities work to recover from a wave of strikes on energy infrastructure.
The timeline — placing full restoration around mid-June 2026 — is significant for Sri Lanka’s fuel supply outlook. Iranian refinery damage, compounded by the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has been a key driver of the global refined-fuel supply squeeze that triggered Sri Lanka’s ongoing energy crisis.
The restoration claim comes amid uncertainty over the Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire, which stalled after nuclear talks collapsed in Islamabad last week. Iran’s refusal to commit to nuclear enrichment limits remains the key sticking point.
If Iran meets its target, global refined-product premiums — which have kept Sri Lanka’s fuel import costs elevated even as crude prices fell post-ceasefire — could begin easing by late June.
However, the claim should be treated with caution. It comes from Iranian officials and the Kharg Island strike damaged approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil export capacity, suggesting the recovery challenge extends well beyond refining.
Sri Lanka’s CPC has secured fuel supply through nine shipments scheduled through April, but the medium-term outlook still depends heavily on Middle East supply normalisation.
