The Department of Meteorology said on Tuesday that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), along with an associated low-level atmospheric disturbance, is likely to develop in the vicinity of Sri Lanka, with an increase in rainfall expected across the island from Wednesday (6).
The department said it was closely monitoring the evolution of the system and asked the public to stay attentive to subsequent forecasts and bulletins.
A low-level disturbance is the early stage of a possible cyclonic system, and while not all such disturbances intensify, they typically bring heavier and more widespread rainfall, gusty winds and an elevated risk of lightning. The advisory follows an Amber lightning warning issued earlier on Tuesday for Central, Sabaragamuwa, Eastern, Uva and North-Central provinces along with Vavuniya and Mullaitivu districts.
The development comes as the country approaches the southwest monsoon onset window. The Met Department’s El Niño update on Monday warned of suppressed monsoon rainfall this year, with director general Athula Karunanayake noting that the wind shift typically arrives after May 25. A pre-monsoon ITCZ disturbance, however, can deliver intense convective rain ahead of the formal seasonal change, particularly across the south-western quadrant of the island.
Last November’s Cyclone Ditwah caused over 600 deaths and an estimated USD 4.1 billion in damage, leaving rural and infrastructure recovery still under way. Officials have not yet indicated whether the current disturbance carries cyclonic potential, but disaster management agencies have been put on alert.
