The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared on Wednesday that El Niño — the natural Pacific Ocean weather pattern that warms global surface temperatures — has officially begun, marking the first formal onset of the phenomenon since the 2023-24 event, Ada Derana reported.
NOAA scientists put the odds of the current event reaching “super El Niño” intensity at 63 percent. A super El Niño classification, the most powerful category in NOAA’s three-tier scale, has historically been associated with prolonged drought across South Asia, including Sri Lanka, alongside intensified rainfall in parts of South America and East Africa.
The declaration follows months of warming sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific that crossed the official El Niño threshold during the May observation window. NOAA’s lead climate scientist said in the announcement that current ocean and atmospheric indicators are tracking close to those seen at the onset of the 2015-16 super event, the most powerful El Niño on modern record.
For Sri Lanka, the NOAA call lines up with the Met Department’s earlier 82 percent drought probability forecast for July and August and the President’s high-level preparedness meeting today on the agriculture, water and power impacts. The Department of Agriculture has already begun urging Yala-season farmers to use water sparingly, while the Disaster Management Centre has flagged seawater desalination as a contingency option if reservoir levels fall further.
NOAA said it expected El Niño conditions to persist through the northern winter 2026 and likely into early 2027, with weekly updates to follow.
Sources: Ada Derana — El Niño has officially begun, US scientists say.
