More than 30 million people will be pushed back into poverty by the impact of the Iran war, including disruptions to fuel and fertiliser supplies just as farmers plant crops, UN development chief Alexander De Croo said on Thursday.
De Croo, head of the United Nations Development Programme, flagged the combined hit from fuel shortages and fertiliser price spikes as a parallel humanitarian crisis running alongside the military and diplomatic tracks of the Middle East conflict.
The timing is particularly severe because the disruptions coincide with planting seasons in Asia and Africa. Higher urea and DAP prices, combined with tight diesel supplies for agricultural machinery, have already driven fertiliser costs up to USD 800 per metric tonne — a 23% jump from the last shipment — threatening Sri Lanka’s Yala season yields.
Sri Lanka is directly exposed. The government has already announced a fertiliser subsidy shield for smallholders, while tea planters are demanding price cuts to keep estates viable. The World Food Programme warned separately this week that food, fuel and forex risks from the conflict were pressing against Sri Lanka’s recovery.
De Croo’s 30-million figure is broader than the earlier UNDP Asia-Pacific estimate that eight million people across the region could fall into poverty, and it frames the war’s economic damage as a global development setback rather than a regional one.
UN agencies have repeatedly warned that the combination of fuel shortages, food price inflation and fertiliser supply shocks can reverse years of development gains in low- and middle-income countries. Sri Lanka’s own Prof. Buddhi Marambe has said the cost squeeze could cut Yala yields by up to 20%.
