Widespread rainfall is expected across Sri Lanka over the next 10 days, and the country should prepare for possible heavy rain, landslides and floods, the Department of Meteorology said on Wednesday.
Department official Ajith Wijayamanne told a media briefing that preparations should be made for the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, particularly given the forecast for heavy rainfall and related hazards, the Daily Mirror reported.
The season ahead
Wijayamanne set out an outlook running into next year:
- October and November — higher rainfall. These months are normally periods of atmospheric instability in the Bay of Bengal, and those conditions could intensify under El Niño.
- December — increased rainfall in the northeastern parts of the country.
- Northern and Eastern Provinces — normal rainfall overall, but the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could raise the risk of flooding there.
- February, March and April 2027 — higher temperatures and lower rainfall.
He said the situation needs close monitoring, and stressed the importance of properly managing the rainfall expected over the coming months.
Today’s forecast
Separately on Wednesday, the department forecast fairly heavy rain of around 75mm in parts of the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Central and Southern provinces, NewsFirst reported.
The low-level atmospheric disturbance that brought recent rain is moving away from Sri Lanka, and its influence is expected to decrease gradually. Showers or thundershowers were expected at times in the Uva, Eastern and North Central provinces and in the Mullaitivu district after 1 p.m.
The department urged the public to guard against localised strong winds and lightning during thundershowers.
A turn in the season
The forecast marks a shift in emphasis. For several weeks the El Niño story in Sri Lanka has been a drought story: a livelihood survey is under way covering 163,869 people across eight districts, blocks of Yala National Park have been closed, and the government has drawn up an action plan for essential food imports. El Niño was assessed earlier this month as the strongest in 75 years.
The same phenomenon is now being cited for the opposite hazard. Disaster drills were ordered in landslide-prone districts on Tuesday, and Wednesday’s briefing puts flood and landslide preparation on a 10-day horizon.
The outlook also sits alongside a more immediate assessment from another agency. Also on Wednesday, the Department of Irrigation said river levels remain high after recent rain but that no river is at risk of developing into a flood situation. The two statements are not in conflict — one describes current river conditions, the other a forecast — but they were issued the same day and point in different directions.
Not reported
Neither outlet gives rainfall totals expected over the 10-day period, names the districts most at risk, or says whether any warning has been issued by the Disaster Management Centre or the National Building Research Organisation on the basis of this outlook. The briefing does not quantify how much El Niño is expected to amplify October and November rainfall, and no figures are given for the IOD’s expected effect in the North and East.
