Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf published a rewritten version of the Taylor Rule on X hours before the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point, NewsFirst reported.

“Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel,” he wrote, using the abbreviation for the Strait of Hormuz. He added: “You can’t 25bp a chokepoint. It’s SOH risk premium, and we set it.”

The argument underneath the taunt

The Taylor Rule, set out by economist John Taylor in the early 1990s, is a benchmark formula linking a central bank’s policy rate to inflation and to the gap between actual and potential output. It is a guide rather than a binding rule, and central banks weigh a far broader set of factors.

Ghalibaf’s point is that neither of the rule’s two inputs addresses the problem. A rate rise cannot reopen a shipping lane or add a barrel to supply; what it can do is tighten demand in an economy already absorbing a supply shock it did not cause. His claim in the second half of the sentence — “we set it” — asserts that Tehran, not the Fed, controls the risk premium in the oil price.

NewsFirst notes this is a pattern rather than a one-off. Ghalibaf, who has also been prominent in Tehran’s talks with Washington over the past six months, criticised US attempts to influence energy markets in March on the same grounds, and last month posted a “Make America Hungry Again” graphic alongside US food insecurity statistics.

The rate decision

The Fed’s move was its first increase in three years. NewsFirst reports that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh acknowledged afterwards that renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran, which have pushed fuel prices up, had shaped policymakers’ thinking.

“There’s no hiding from hot spots around the world,” Warsh said.

Analysts cited by NewsFirst point to three pressures behind the increase: inflation linked to US tariffs, the investment surge tied to the artificial intelligence boom, and energy costs driven by the conflict with Iran.

Why it matters here

Sri Lanka is a fuel importer with no domestic crude, and the Hormuz risk premium reaches it directly through the import bill. Brent has been trading around US$108 with bond yields following the conflict, US diesel has passed six dollars a gallon, and the regional response is already visible — Pakistan this week revived a fuel austerity package it had withdrawn in June.

Ghalibaf’s leverage claim is not idle. The IRGC has previously announced, then reversed, a policy of “strict management” of traffic through the strait, and the US Treasury has pressed China over the consequences of a Hormuz blockade. The World Food Programme has estimated the war’s knock-on effects have pushed 1.3 million Sri Lankans into food insecurity.

Not reported

NewsFirst does not reproduce the formula Ghalibaf posted, give the date or time of the post, or say how the Fed’s new policy rate now stands. It does not record any US response to the remarks, or say whether tanker traffic through the strait is currently restricted — the question on which the whole claim turns.