The Department of Meteorology has forecast near-normal rainfall across most of Sri Lanka during the June to September (JJAS) southwest monsoon season, with slightly below-normal totals expected in pockets of the central hills and the north-west, Newswire reported.
The Seasonal Forecasting Division said the North Western and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, along with the Kandy and Nuwara Eliya Districts, are likely to receive slightly below-normal rainfall over the four-month season. The forecast was developed using outputs from global climate prediction models, combined with assessments of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The Department said it would continue to monitor global and regional climate conditions and issue updates to the seasonal forecast as required.
The southwest monsoon is the primary water source for the central hills, where the Castlereigh, Maussakelle and Polpitiya reservoir systems feed major hydropower stations and tea-growing areas depend on consistent rainfall through the peak picking months. The areas flagged for below-normal totals overlap with reservoirs that have already been drawn down through a longer dry spell, tightening the link between the seasonal outlook and hydropower output later in the year.
The new forecast follows the Department’s earlier work on El Niño risk in the JJAS window and parallel reporting that India is bracing for a weaker monsoon expected to weigh on inflation and growth. A regional pattern of slightly drier-than-normal conditions during the southwest monsoon could carry through to reservoir storage, electricity generation and agricultural input planning into the Yala harvest.
Source: Newswire.
